Transport-related takeaways in the IEA’s WEO 2024

Written by Angel Manuel Almendros Salerno

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a global authority that provides data, analysis, and policy recommendations on energy-related issues to promote energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. The IEA’s flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook (WEO), offers an in-depth analysis of current energy trends and long-term projections to guide global efforts toward a sustainable energy future.

This article highlights key transport-related takeaways from the WEO, aiming to keep MobiliseYourCity partners and readers informed of the latest insights relevant to sustainable urban mobility. The WEO explores possible energy futures through three main scenarios:

1. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Reflects the energy sector’s current trajectory based on existing policy settings.
2. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): Examines the impact of achieving all announced national energy and climate targets, including net zero goals.
3. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE): Maps a pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, aiming for net zero emissions by mid-century.

These scenarios provide a comprehensive view of the future of energy systems and their implications for transport electrification, emission reductions, and policy impacts.
 

Electric Public Transport

Growth Trends in Electric Buses: 

1. Market Expansion: Electric buses are gaining traction globally, with a 16% share of new bus sales in the European Union during the first half of 2024. By 2030, the global bus fleet is projected to be over 10% electrified. 
2. China's Leadership: China continues to lead in electric bus deployment, driven by strong policy support and domestic manufacturing capabilities. Chinese cities like Shenzhen have fully electrified their bus fleets.

Electrification of Rail Transport: 

1.  Progress in Rail: Electrification is set to cover 75% of rail activity by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), highlighting the rail sector's role in reducing overall transport emissions.     

E-Bike & Micro Mobility

Impact on Energy Demand and Emissions:

1. E-Bike Proliferation: Over 65 million e-bikes were sold worldwide in 2023, with China accounting for 80% of sales. E-bikes have overtaken conventional two/three-wheelers, highlighting a significant modal shift in urban transport.
2. Oil Demand Displacement: E-bikes displaced an estimated 70,000 barrels per day of oil demand in 2023 by reducing car use, indicating their potential to reduce oil dependency and emissions in urban areas.

Urban Mobility and Usage Patterns: 

1. Range of Use: E-bikes typically cover distances of 3-24 kilometres and replace a variety of other passenger transport modes in urban areas, including public transportthe , walking, non-electric cycling, and car journeys.
2. Last-Mile Connectivity: E-bikes address the “last-mile” problem of public transit, helping passengers reach their final destinations more easily.
3. E-Bike Sharing Programmes: Over 1,500 cities worldwide offer e-bike park-and-ride share programmes, supporting the integration of e-bikes into urban transport networks.

Other Transport Takeaways

Rising Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: 

1.  Growth Trends: In 2023, the transport sector's energy demand surged by nearly 4%, mirroring the growth rate of 2022. This uptick is primarily attributed to a significant rebound in aviation activity—recovering to over 90% of pre-pandemic levels—and a 2% increase in road transport energy use. 
2. Regional Contributions: The expansion of the passenger car fleet by over 20 million vehicles, predominantly in China, India, and Southeast Asia, underscores the impact of rising incomes and population growth in these emerging markets. 

Projected Demand and Efficiency Gains: 

1. Decadal Outlook: By 2030, energy demand in the transport sector is projected to increase by nearly 10% under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
2. Efficiency Mitigating Demand: Despite a 10% expansion in the car fleet, energy use in road transport is expected to rise by only 5%, thanks to energy efficiency improvements and the accelerated uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). 

Energy Demand and Oil Consumption Implications: 

1. Stabilizing Oil Demand: Despite a projected 30% increase in passenger activity and a 15% rise in freight activity by 2030, oil demand in the transport sector is expected to remain at current levels in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), primarily due to the penetration of EVs. 
2. Shift to Electricity: The share of road transport activity powered by electricity is projected to increase from 4% today to 17% by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), with even higher shares in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). 
3. Impact on Oil Shipping: The reduction in oil demand is set to decrease energy consumption from international oil tankers by 15% by 2030 in the APS, reflecting broader shifts in global energy trade patterns. 

Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics: 

1. Current Market Penetration: In 2023, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) constituted 12% of new car sales globally, with internal combustion engine hybrids and plug-in hybrids accounting for 10% and 6%, respectively. 
2. Future Projections: The EV market share is anticipated to surpass 20% in 2024, with approximately 5% of the global passenger car fleet being electric. By 2030, over 15% of the global car fleet is expected to be electric, rising to nearly 50% of new car sales.

Decarbonisation Beyond Passenger Cars 

1. Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Zero-emission heavy-duty trucks reached a 10% share of sales in China by December 2023. This trend signifies a critical shift in the freight sector towards electrification. 
2. Aviation: Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are poised to play a crucial role, supplying 2% of aviation energy demand by 2030 and over 10% by 2050 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). This transition is essential for reducing the sector's the APS shipping energy demand by 2030, which the Maritime Organization's decarbonisation targets are driving the adoption of low-emission fuels. Ammonia and hydrogen are expected to account for 4% of shipping energy demand by 2030 in the APS, comthe APS shipping energy demand by 2030. 

Policy and Economic Drivers 

1. Incentives and Standards: Policies such as the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, EU CO₂ emissions standards, and various national regulations are important in driving EV adoption and infrastructure development. 
2. Battery Cost Trends: Declining battery prices—projected to fall below USD 80/kWh in 2024—are critical for reducing EV costs and enhancing market competitiveness.

Health and Environmental Benefits 

1. Air Pollution Reduction: The shift to electric mobility is projected to cut transport-related emissions significantly, leading to improved air quality. In the NZE Scenario, transport emissions are reduced by 85% by 2050. 
2. Public Health Impact: Reduced reliance on fossil fuels in transport is expected to lower premature deaths caused by ambient air pollution, with a decrease of around 1.5 million fewer premature deaths in 2050 compared to 2023 levels in the NZE Scenario. 

As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, the World Energy Outlook provides a crucial roadmap for policymakers, businesses, and urban planners to advance sustainable mobility solutions that align with climate targets, foster economic growth, and address the urgent need for a cleaner, healthier future. MobiliseYourCity and its partners can harness these insights to drive impactful actions in urban mobility, enabling cities to achieve climate resilience, economic prosperity, and improved quality of life for their residents.